A few weeks ago, the housing market looked like it was finally setting up buyers for a real spring. Sellers who had pulled their listings in frustration were coming back — nearly 45,000 homes that were delisted in 2025 were relisted in January, the highest January total in a decade. Denver ranked fifth nationally for relisting activity, at 7.4% of active inventory — meaning this isn’t just a Sun Belt story. It’s showing up here.

The logic was reasonable: sellers who had watched their homes sit unsold last year decided to try again ahead of the busy spring season. Over a third of those returning listings came back at a lower price than before — a quiet acknowledgment that the market has shifted.

All of that relisting activity contributed to something that hasn’t been seen in more than a decade. According to Redfin’s February data, there were roughly 46% more sellers than buyers nationally — the largest gap in records going back to 2013, up from about 30% a year earlier. The U.S. has been in a buyer’s market since May 2024, but this is a new level of imbalance.

That gap shows up in contract cancellations too. Roughly 1 in 7 homes that went under contract in February fell through — buyers backing out over price, inspection findings, or second thoughts, knowing there are plenty of other options. It was a record for the month of February.

What should have been the key ingredient to unlock spring demand was mortgage rates. On February 26, the 30-year fixed briefly fell to 5.98% — the first time rates had dropped below 6% in over three years. It was a milestone that analysts expected to bring sidelined buyers back into the conversation.

That window lasted less than 72 hours.

U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes against Iran on February 28, and rates have been climbing ever since. As CNBC reported this week, the 30-year fixed now sits around 6.5% — reversing nearly all of the affordability progress that had built up over prior months. Mortgage purchase applications dropped 5% in a single week after the conflict began.

The mechanism is familiar: the war triggered energy price increases, which raised inflation concerns, which pushed Treasury yields higher, which pushed mortgage rates up with them. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its March meeting and signaled only one possible cut for the rest of 2026. Markets now put roughly 74% odds on rates staying flat through December.

The structural picture for the Denver metro hasn’t changed: there’s more inventory than we’ve had in years, and sellers are increasingly motivated — especially those relisting after watching their homes sit last year. That’s a real opportunity for buyers who are in a position to move.

The honest complication is timing. Economists generally note that geopolitical shocks affect mortgage rates and consumer confidence more than they affect underlying housing demand — people still need to move, and the long-term case for ownership doesn’t change with the news cycle. But the spring season that looked promising six weeks ago is now entering its critical weeks under a cloud of uncertainty that wasn’t there before.

Sources: Redfin Buyers vs. Sellers Report, February 2026  ·  Redfin Relistings Report, March 2026  ·  CNBC, March 25, 2026  ·  Mortgage Bankers Association  ·  Freddie Mac PMMS